Guy Reams (00:01.422)
Today is day 198. When do you trust intuition?
So I was playing chess the other night and I was playing an over -the -board game at the club, the chess club. And I decided to play the French defense, which is a different type of defense in response to standard king pawns opening. And I hadn't played it in a long time, but when I was younger, I was really good at it. Like I had memorized all the opening moves. I knew what to do.
So as I was playing through the game, I just was trusting my intuition. I was just trusting my gut feel on the moves, because I had played this opening so many times. Well, there was a sequence in which you made a different move than what I was used to. So I just responded with what I felt was the best, because I'd played this so well, I kind of knew. Well, unfortunately, I ended up, it looked good, but...
reality was I ended up losing a piece because of a potential check against my king that I hadn't recognized. So when the opponent checked my king, I couldn't respond with the take on a piece exchange. And so I went down a piece. So in this case, although I thought my instinct was great, my instinct was dead wrong and got me into trouble. So this really got me to thinking.
How often do I trust my instinct when I'm entirely off base? I caught myself doing it earlier today. I was working on a project doing a great deal about a video editing. And I did a lot of video editing when I was younger. So I kind of know some of the basic mechanics and I understand I was working. So I had laid things out and kind of did my thing. And then it came down to where I got overwhelmed and I couldn't do it anymore. So I had to hire somebody to help me. And then I ended up realizing,
Guy Reams (02:05.166)
that this person had to redo a lot of my stuff because my instincts were completely wrong. Once again, I jacked it up. In fact, the person had to tell me, hey, I hope you don't mind me saying, but don't ever do this on your own again. Because I just was wrong, right? So my instincts, based on some knowledge, were just not correct. Another situation where I was playing pool, you know, billiards.
And I hadn't played pool in a long time. So a gentleman and I were playing pool and we played a whole bunch of games. And when we first started playing, I was doing really well. And that's because when I was younger in high school, I was pretty darn good at pool. A friend of mine, Chris, and I would play all night long, like for many nights in a row. And we both got really good at pool. And I'm getting pretty decent.
So my instincts when it comes to playing pool are kind of natural. I mean, I kind of know where the balls are gonna go. I know how to apply English. I know where the cue ball will end up. I know what shots will most likely go in and what shots have a chance to not go in. And I know how to not leave the cue ball in a situation to benefit my opponent. I mean, it's just instincts that I've picked up over the years playing pool. So when I first started playing,
I did really well in the first four or five games. I mean really well. So my instincts were right in line. First then my head started getting in the game and it went all the crap because I started thinking too much. So. Here here you know was my thought, you know. When I know something really well and I'm really practiced, then I seem to do pretty well because my instincts were well honed in well trained. You know my father when he was younger.
got lost in the woods and was lost for three days in a blizzard, a snowstorm. So he'd always tell me when I was growing up that getting lost in the woods is actually a lot easier than you think. Because as you're walking in the woods, you think for certain that you need to go to the right, for example, when in reality you're completely turned around and you have to go to the left.
Guy Reams (04:30.222)
So you can become so convinced directionally, when everything looks kind of the same, you can become so convinced directionally that you need to go a certain way that you will insist upon it in your mind even though you're absolutely dead wrong. And this is what happened to my father. And he ended up going down the wrong path and ended up being completely lost. I've also heard airline pilots talk about when you can't see the horizon, sometimes you can be completely lost.
And you could have in your mind's eye that up is down and down is up. And that can completely fry your brain when you're flying. And so this is why they teach pilots to trust their instrument panels when flying in foggy or unclear weather. I think there's a big difference between flying in fog or flying in unclear weather and flying in perfect daylight. It takes a lot to trust, you know,
People don't want to trust the instrument panels, especially when it's telling you something that in your mind you think is completely wrong, which can be very hard to do, right? I mean, that's happened to me. I'll look at the data. I'm looking at the data of a business, and the data's telling me one thing, but my instinct's telling me something completely different. I want to trust my instincts, but the data is telling me a completely different story. And sometimes it's hard to change your brain when it's right there in front of you.
So when can you trust your instincts? I'm just not willing to ignore my instincts. So the question is not, don't ever trust your instincts. I think the question is when should you trust your instincts? So I think there's four basic reasons why you should trust your instincts. Number one, when you are an expert in something and you have a deep understanding or lots of regular experience in a particular field,
your intuitive decisions can sometimes be extremely accurate. In fact, a lot of times it can be even more accurate than machine models because you have an expertise based on an instinct. And since we're dealing in an environment with humans and unpredictability, sometimes a human's intuition can be far better and far more accurate than even the most complex model. But that only works in an expert -based decision model. I think split -second decisions.
Guy Reams (06:50.798)
The humans are extremely good at making split second rapid decisions, like for example, in an emergency response or to get out of danger. Or maybe it's a critical time and making rapid decisions are what needed to save the day or to get the company ahead or make a decision quickly so you can get the market faster.
split second decisions or sometimes you just got to go with your instincts because waiting around to make a decision or hand wringing about something is not going to be effective. I think also complex situations. Sometimes the situations are so complex, you cannot do enough analytical processing. The model is too complex to understand. So sometimes, you know, like when playing chess or in business is so complex, if you try to analyze everything, it's paralyzing.
So consequently, intuition has to kick in. Study it out the best you can, but then use your intuition to make an answer after you've studied it out. Finally, relationships. Human relationships are probably one of the most complex things we deal with. And that is something that we all are experts in. From the time we are an infant to old age, we are learning and processing, understanding human relationships. The way people think and feel,
what human expressions mean, what body language means, what intonation means, language, choice, absence or presence of certain things. So we understand that very well. And because of that, I think when it comes to relationships, usually your intuition is going to be pretty spot on. If you feel like somebody's mad at you, they're probably mad at you. So in that case, I think we're experts.
So finally, I think you can trust your instincts in certain situations, but I think we also need to be careful because sometimes instincts will send us on a bad path. So with that, trust your instincts, but be careful. All right, thank you.